November 7, 2008 Analysts Management Company Arsa revised its outlook on U.S. dollar exchange rate. According to analysts Ars October 31, 2008, the annual forecast of the dollar exchange rate stood at 26.9 rubles per dollar. In connection with the election of Barack Obama, has increased the likelihood of policy alignment of fiscal and monetary expansion to overcome the crisis. Change in the probability of monetary scenario to overcome the crisis liquidity have forced analysts to revise forecasts the dollar exchange rate. According to an updated assessment, the annual forecast of the dollar was 26.4 rubles to the dollar. It should be noted that the economic policy of only paper may look like a coherent and leads to a certain result, but in reality, it happens very rarely. Monetary expansion affects the economy slow, and measures of monetary expansion in soon will stimulate the falling dollar.
At the same time, fiscal policy (the implementation of public procurement or tax reductions), acts quickly, though it has a significant bureaucratic delays before implementation. Fiscal policy will strengthen the dollar. In summary, we should say that because of the inconsistency of policy in the coming year remains the possibility of sharp jumps in the dollar – as depreciation and strengthening. Therefore, the forecast level of 26.4 rubles to the dollar – it is rather the average temperature in the hospital, and to avoid losses peg to the dollar is better not to do.
