The dollar hit a AR $ 3.22 for the month of April in Argentina. While many bought at these levels, projecting a shot of the dollar as has happened in the past at every crisis in Argentina, Martin Redrado sitting on its nearly U.S. $ 50,000 million in international reserves were told that no, this time it was not. Not only does it remained at that peak, but the dollar fell to $ 3.04 AR. He hinted that the central bank has enough firepower to repel any run. But also to reduce inflation (target missed) and get off the flight of deposits (achieved). But the voices of the industrial side already being felt. They protest because they removed the lower parity profitability in exports.
In addition to lower export revenues for the treasury. The newspaper The Nation did a survey where local economists believe that will put the value of the dollar by year-end. According to Eduardo Fracchia, IAE, "The government, I believe, will not pursue a policy devaluation aggressive as I would expect the private sector, "and predicted a dollar to $ 3.15 by year's end. "Moreover, it will not drop the dollar in recent months as it would undermine the competitive exchange rate, which is a stronghold of the model." Camilo Tiscornia economist said: "Like, I think the Government has a margin large enough to handle your cravings for a good time. " He said the government is going through a dilemma: the need to "prevent further outpace inflation and the erosion of competitiveness.
Fausto Spotorno, Orlando Ferreres study was very bullish, believes the bill will be placed "between $ 3.20 and $ 3.25?. Osvaldo Cado of Prefinex, predicted a $ 3.21 dollar. He said the massive capital flight slowed, but as "a trickle continues month after month that pushes up the exchange rate," and that "the government maintain the stable exchange rate while continuing the local business climate and volatile external" , reported to LN. (Prefinex is one of the consultants listed at the top of the Market Expectations Survey (REM) that makes the Central Bank (BCRA) in terms of exchange rate forecasts of reference. The average of all participants gives $ 3 , 1655 for December this year and $ 3.38 by the end of 2009). Estudio Bein, provides an exchange rate of $ 3.11 by year's end. "It is expected that the central parity remain stable or slightly up. The coming months will be quiet. What you can not do is a strong movement up, because that would go to inflation, "said Marina Dal Poggetto, an analyst of the study. Dante Sica, owner of the consulting Abeceb.com, the dollar will be between $ 3 and $ 3.10 at year end, although "there is strong pressure from business by the loss of competitiveness." And Miguel Angel Broda forecast $ 3.10 and $ 3.14, and a further devaluation in early 2009 with a 25-30% inflation between the real exchange rate is falling sharply, and if we add the drop in real value, is an explosive combination for manufacturers, hoping that the government of Cristina, who has stated in the past for a high dollar, it rises again.
